Notes from the Desk – CAD CPI – Still High But Heading in the Right Direction.
By the numbers.
- November CPI came in at 6.8%, lower than last month’s 6.9% print, but higher than the 6.7% forecast.
- Lower gasoline and furniture costs were offset by higher shelter and food costs.
- The BoC’s CPI-median at 5% is a touch higher than last month’s 4.9%, while the CPI-trim was unchanged at 5.3%.
- Q4 CPI is on track to come in below the BoC’s October forecast of 7.1%.
Implications.
Although CPI remains well above the BoC’s target, it is trending in the right direction. It remains a toss-up whether the BoC is finished raising or will deliver a 25 bps hike in January. Today’s numbers shouldn’t materially affect bond yields.
