Notes From The Desk
FOMC Rate Announcement
Nobody was surprised that the FOMC held rates steady this afternoon. Inflation remains elevated, while the labour market remains strong, leaving the FOMC to remain on the sidelines. The Press...
Bank of Canada Rate Announcement
The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered the policy rate by 25 bps to 3%, now firmly inside the 2.25%-3.25% neutral rate band. The Bank also dropped forward rate guidance, adopting a neutral posture for...
Employment Data – The Plot Thickens
Today’s employment data confirms that economic conditions between Canada and the US continue to diverge. The numbers. US 227k jobs created (220k expected). Unemployment rate: 4.2% (4.1% expected)....
Canadian GDP – Sl’oh Canada
This morning, all eyes were on GDP to hint at what the Bank of Canada (BoC) will do at their December 11th meeting. The numbers. Q3 GDP: 1.0% (vs. 1.1% expected). September MoM GDP: 0.1% (vs. 0.3%)....
CAD October CPI – Neither Here Nor There
Inflation rose slightly in October, with headline CPI at 2%. But this probably does very little to influence the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision in December. The numbers. YoY CPI: 2% (1.9%...
Canadian Employment Data – Nothing To See Here
Domestic employment growth was humdrum in October. The numbers. 14.7k jobs created (27k expected) The mix was slightly favourable, with 25.6k full-time positions generated versus 11.2k...
FOMC – The Results Are In
The Americans had one unanimous vote this week, with all members of the Federal Reserve Committee agreeing to deliver a 25 bps cut, reducing the target range for the Fed Funds Rate to 4.5-4.75%....
The BoC Rate Announcement – The Big Ease-y
This morning, the Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.75%. Since June, the BoC has lowered the policy rate by 1.25%. The takeaways: With inflation falling...
CAD September CPI – A No-Brainer Next Week
Today’s CPI is the last major data point before next week’s Bank of Canada decision, and it certainly means they will cut the policy rate. The numbers: YoY CPI 1.6% (1.8% expected)...
US September Employment – Strong Like Bull
The unambiguously strong September US jobs report dented the summer narrative of weakness in the labour market. The numbers: 254k jobs created (140k expected). Unemployment rate falls...
FOMC Rate Decision – A Hawkish 50
The FOMC kicked off the easing cycle with a 50 bps reduction in the ‘Fed Funds’ rate. Although several cuts are clearly coming, the FOMC did not express a sense of urgency. The interesting...
North American Employment Data – 50/50 on 50
Today’s payroll data confirms that job growth is slowing, opening the door for further central bank accommodation. The numbers: US 142k jobs created (165k expected)....