Notes From The Desk

Notes from the Desk -  The BoC Announcement: Reading The Tea Leaves   The fact the BoC hiked 50 bps taking the overnight rate to 4.25% falls into the ‘who cares’ category.  The more important...

Notes from the Desk - North American Employment:  Uncomfortably Robust   Neither higher rates, nor widespread predictions of an imminent recession are curbing hiring. Canadian Employment: 10.1k...

Notes from the Desk - CAD CPI - No Game Changer The October CPI data had a tidbit for both the ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ camps.   Despite a surge in energy prices, and food inflation still in double...

Notes from the Desk - US CPI - A Welcome Relief Federal Reserve officials are feeling a bit more comfortable this morning as US October inflation data came in lower than expected.   YoY...

Note from the Desk - Higher Rates, Hire More! The North American labour markets continue to confound conventional monetary theorists.  Higher rates and a looming recession don’t seem to be impacting...

Notes from the Desk: FOMC Meeting - The Over/Under   The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised policy rates by 75bps bringing the overnight rate into the 3.75% - 4% range. Chairman Powell reiterated...

Notes From The Desk: Bank of Canada – Reading The Tea Leaves.   “We are drawing closer to the end, but we are not there yet" Tiff Macklem The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets by...

Inflation Frustration – Just Not Cool Enough Headline CPI increased 0.1% in September with the annual rate easing 0.1% to 6.9% (versus consensus 6.7%) CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.4%...

Notes from the Desk - Canadian Business Outlook Survey Q3 saw Canadian business sentiment experience its third-largest drop, behind only the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic. Although...

Notes From the Desk - September Employment Data This morning’s North American data can be summarized as meeting expectations. By the Numbers: US 263k jobs created (255k expected) YoY wage growth as...

  The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 75bps rate hike, bringing policy rates into the 3.0-3.25% band. The Fed’s median forecasts for overnight rates:   End of 2022 – 4.4% End of 2023 –...

Notes From The Desk: Canadian Inflation - A Glimmer of Hope Canadian inflation slowed in August, with headline CPI coming in at 7% (7.3% expected) as lower gasoline prices offset rising food costs....