Notes From the Desk:  BoC Day – Dropping Some Hints.   As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its target overnight rate at 5% and continued the process of quantitative tightening. But as is often the case with these meetings, the devil is in the details, and they did drop some hints that rate […]

Notes From the Desk – Canadian Inflation – A Fly In The Ointment   While the headline inflation number for December met expectations, the acceleration in the core measures should raise concerns at the Bank of Canada (BoC). By the Numbers. YoY headline CPI met expectations at 3.4%. Both core measures came in 0.2% higher […]

Notes From the Desk – North American Employment Data   The shine is coming off the bond market as employment remains more resilient than expected. By the Numbers. US 216k jobs created vs 176k expected. -71k net revision to previous two months. Unemployment rate remains at 3.7% vs 3.8% expected. YoY wage growth 4.1% vs […]

Notes From the Desk – FOMC Meeting – Release the Hounds   As expected, the FOMC kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5%.  The far more interesting items were buried in their press release and conference.   The dot-plot thickens.   No further hikes are indicated. A rate cut was added to 2024 for a […]

Notes From the Desk – US Payrolls – A Dent In The Narrative   Over the last several weeks, we have seen bond yields plummeting lower on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting rates in early spring.  Today’s employment data has put a dent in that narrative. By the Numbers.   199k […]