Notes From the Desk: Today’s Employment Data – Bolstering the Case for Lower Rates   June’s employment data has bolstered the case for lower rates.   By the numbers:   US   June employment 206k (190k expected).  The slightly higher number is offset by the 111k downward revision to the previous two months data. Unemployment […]

Notes From the Desk – CAD May CPI – A Thorn in the Side Canadian May CPI was well above expectations, halting the trend of falling prices.   By the numbers:   YoY headline CPI – 2.9% (2.6% expected) YoY CPI Median  – 2.8% (2.6% expected) YoY CPI Trim – 2.9% (2.8% expected)   Food, […]

Notes From The Desk: The Fed Announcement – Give & Take.   As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates unchanged, but they did adjust their projections on the timing of cuts, pushing them further into the future. The dot-plot thickens.   2024: Shifted from 3 cuts to 1 cut. 2025 & 2026: From 3 […]

Notes From the Desk: North American Jobs Data – A Ball of Confusion Divergence remains the theme for the Canadian and US economies.  The labour market remains strong south of the border but continues to soften in the great white north.   By the numbers:   Canada.   26.7k jobs created (22.5k expected), however, the […]

Notes From the Desk: Bank of Canada Rate Announcement – Let’s Enjoy The Moment   The Bank of Canada (BoC) became the first G7 central bank to cut rates this morning, lowering the overnight rate from 5% to 4.75%.   Reading the tea leaves: The accompanying statement and press conference were decisively more ‘dovish’ than […]