Notes From the Desk – Canadian Jobs – Strike 3? Today’s 40k decline in jobs makes it three declines in a row.  The unemployment rate moved up from 4.9% to 5.4% Seasonal adjustments added to the confusion with a nearly 50k decline in education workers. A 28k decline in construction jobs suggests higher rates are […]

The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked 75bps this morning, bringing the overnight rate to 3.25% The BoC squashed any hope that they were finished by making it clear that ‘policy interest rates will need to rise further.’ Implications: Little reaction in yields as the bond market is already priced for a terminal rate of 3.5% […]

  Today’s US employment data shows that unsustainable growth is moderating: 315k jobs created (318k expected) Unemployment rate moves up 2 ticks to 3.7% (labour force rose by 800k as more people have decided to look for work) Monthly wage growth is a touch softer at 0.3% vs 0.4% expected Today’s data does little to […]

  Chairman Powell’s much-anticipated speech was short and to the point this morning.  His effort to keep inflation expectations under control was on full display as he forcefully aligned himself with Paul Volcker, declaring that the Federal Reserve would not declare a premature victory in the fight to bring inflation down to 2%. In terms […]

  The employment picture in Canada and the US seems to be diverging.  Here are the numbers: US Non-Farm Payrolls: 528k jobs added (250k expected) Monthly wage growth 0.5% (0.3% expected) Unemployment rate 3.5% (3.6% expected) Canadian Labour Force Survey: 31k jobs lost (15k gain expected) Wage growth 5.4% (5.9% expected) Unemployment rate 4.9% (5% […]