Notes from the Desk – CAD CPI – It’s Still Hot in Here   The Canadian inflation data for April surprised to the upside this morning.   YoY CPI 4.4% vs 4.1% expected. YoY core-CPI measures came in at 4.2% meeting forecasts.   The increase in headline CPI was led by gasoline and food prices.  […]

Notes From the Desk: US & Canadian Employment – Not Cinco-ing (de Mayo) with Expectations   Both the US and Canadian employment wage growth data were stronger than expected, as the inflation dragon is proving much harder to slay.   The Canadian numbers.   41k jobs added versus the expected 20k.  Although, the mix was […]

Notes from the Desk – The Powell Pause (kinda)   As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 25bps hike, establishing the range of the Fed funds rate at 5-5.25% The accompanying statement dropped language referring to ‘some additional policy firming is needed,’ and replaced it with more flexible language about considering economic and financial […]

Notes From The Desk: CAD CPI – It’s All About The Base   Inflation continued to decelerate in March, meeting consensus expectations.   Annual CPI fell from 5.2% to 4.3% as lower energy prices more than offset higher mortgage costs and food prices. While the drop in the headline number was significant, the year-over-year data […]

Notes From the Desk – Bank of Canada Decision – Patience Young Grasshopper   As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady at 4.5%.  They also updated their economic forecasts:   Inflation is expected to fall to 3% this summer and to 2% by the end of 2024. Growth numbers were tweaked to […]