Notes from the Desk – The Powell Pause (kinda)   As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 25bps hike, establishing the range of the Fed funds rate at 5-5.25% The accompanying statement dropped language referring to ‘some additional policy firming is needed,’ and replaced it with more flexible language about considering economic and financial […]

Notes From The Desk: CAD CPI – It’s All About The Base   Inflation continued to decelerate in March, meeting consensus expectations.   Annual CPI fell from 5.2% to 4.3% as lower energy prices more than offset higher mortgage costs and food prices. While the drop in the headline number was significant, the year-over-year data […]

Notes From the Desk – Bank of Canada Decision – Patience Young Grasshopper   As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady at 4.5%.  They also updated their economic forecasts:   Inflation is expected to fall to 3% this summer and to 2% by the end of 2024. Growth numbers were tweaked to […]

Notes From the Desk – US CPI – Faint Progress US March inflation points to a slight moderation in price pressures.   YoY headline CPI 5% vs 5.1% expected. YoY core CPI 5.6% vs 5.6% expected.   Consumers are getting some relief on food and energy costs, but service prices remain stubbornly high. Today’s data […]

Notes from The Desk – FOMC Meeting – The Dot Plot Thickens The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the overnight rate by 25bps on Wednesday afternoon, bringing the range to 4.75-5%.  The Fed also softened the language about future rate hikes indicating that they will be fully data-dependent. The dot-plot.   The median projection for the […]