Notes from the Desk – US CPI – Encouraging News The US October CPI report saw both headline and core inflation softer than expected. By the numbers. YoY CPI 3.2% (3.3% expected) YoY Core inflation 4% (4.1% expected)   Implications. The downside surprises were seen in shelter costs, negative core goods prices, and falling used […]

Notes From The Desk: North American Employment – Help Wanted?   October saw a cooling in both temperatures and the North American labour market. By the numbers. Canada.   17.5k jobs added (v. expected 25k), with the gains coming from part-time employment. Unemployment rate: 5.7% (v. expected 5.6%). Wage growth 5.0% year-over-year. (v. expected 5.2%). […]

Notes From The Desk: Bank of Canada – The Unchanged & The Changed   The Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady this morning while continuing the process of quantitative tightening. While this was expected, there were some noteworthy changes to their economic forecast. Looking ahead.   The Forecasts for 2023 & 2024 GDP were […]

Notes From the Desk:  CAD CPI – A small sigh of relief   Canadian headline CPI for September surprised nearly everyone by coming in below expectations. By the numbers..   YoY CPI 3.8% (4% expected) The average of the Bank of Canada’s favourite core CPI measures was 3.75% (3.9% expected)   The Implications. Normally, a […]

Notes From the Desk – US CPI – The Devil is in the Details   Surging energy prices pushed the headline September CPI a touch higher than expected.  While media outlets will flash the headline number, the devil is in the details, and that is what the Federal Reserve will be paying attention to.   […]