Mar 12, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
Amid ‘pervasive uncertainty’, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut the overnight rate 25 bps to 2.75%, taking us to the midpoint of their estimated range for the neutral rate (2.25% – 3.25%). The Decision. Recent economic data (i.e., Q4 GDP 2.6%) would have suggested a...Mar 7, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
Investors and traders are likely relieved that today’s employment data didn’t add to the market confusion. The Numbers. Canada 1.1k jobs created (20k expected) Unemployment rate 6.6% (6.7% expected) YoY hourly wage growth 4% (3.7% expected) US 151k jobs created (160k...Jan 29, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
Nobody was surprised that the FOMC held rates steady this afternoon. Inflation remains elevated, while the labour market remains strong, leaving the FOMC to remain on the sidelines. The Press Conference. There were questions about the impact of the wide array of...Jan 29, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered the policy rate by 25 bps to 3%, now firmly inside the 2.25%-3.25% neutral rate band. The Bank also dropped forward rate guidance, adopting a neutral posture for maximum flexibility in the coming months. The useless stuff: Given the...Dec 6, 2024 | Notes from the Desk
Today’s employment data confirms that economic conditions between Canada and the US continue to diverge. The numbers. US 227k jobs created (220k expected). Unemployment rate: 4.2% (4.1% expected). YoY earnings growth: 4% (3.9% expected). Canada 5k jobs created...Nov 29, 2024 | Notes from the Desk
This morning, all eyes were on GDP to hint at what the Bank of Canada (BoC) will do at their December 11th meeting. The numbers. Q3 GDP: 1.0% (vs. 1.1% expected). September MoM GDP: 0.1% (vs. 0.3%). October Advanced Estimate: 0.1%. GDP YoY: 1.6%, as expected. ...
