COVID – Been There, Done That The Canadian economy continues to storm back from the pandemic. Today’s Labour Force numbers were jaw-dropping: 336.6K jobs created vs expectations of 127.5k Unemployment rate falls to 5.5% vs 6.2% expected (just above pre-pandemic low of 5.4%) Participation rate increases from 65.2% to 65.4% Hours worked increases by 3.6% Wages […]

The Expected – US CPI. Today’s US CPI came in as expected with headline inflation of 7.9% and core inflation of 6.4%. With the recent jump in commodity prices threatening to prolong the period of higher inflation, we expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates 25bps next week and signal that a steady stream of […]

Bargains in High-Quality Credit? Yesterday, Scotiabank came to market with a $2.25 bn 5y Senior Bond. · The coupon was 2.95% · Credit spread of +132 bps The credit spread is more than double the level from just over a year ago (Feb 2021 ~ 63 bps). Over the same period, BNS stock is up […]

Canadian Inflation – Seals The Deal CAD CPI exceeded forecasts as price pressures are spreading across the economy. · Headline CPI came in at 5.1% (4.8% expected) · Core was 3.3% (3.1% expected) A rate hike on March 2nd should be a done deal, with the only unresolved question being whether the Bank of Canada […]

Canadians & US Employment Update Today’s employment data demonstrates the stark differences in the response to Omicron between the US and Canada. US Employment numbers far exceed expectations: · Employment rose by 467k (125k expected) · Labour Force participation rate – 62.2% (61.9% expected) · Wages rose by 0.7% (0.5% expected) bringing the YoY increase […]