Notes From The Desk: FOMC Meeting – A Hawkish Pause   The FOMC chose to exercise patience today by holding rates steady but raised the terminal rate’s median projection to 5.6%, indicating the need for 50bps of hikes in the coming months. Connecting the dots. The infamous dot plot revealed the following projections.   Terminal […]

Notes From the Desk – US Inflation – Is It Slow Enough?   The last data point before tomorrow’s Federal Reserve (Fed) dropped this morning. The numbers. YoY headline CPI 4% (Consensus estimate 4.1%) YoY core CPI 5.3% (Consensus estimate 5.2%)   Tomorrow. With more mixed signals, today’s data did not offer clarity on tomorrow’s […]

Notes from the Desk – CAD Employment Data – Is Bad News Good News? Today’s headlines will focus on the loss of 17k jobs, but the ‘devil is in the details.’ The headline numbers.   Employment fell 17.3k vs. expectation of rising 21k. Unemployment rate of 5.2% vs 5.1% expected. YoY average wage growth came […]

Notes from the Desk:  The Bank of Canada Rate Announcement- Surprised But Not Surprised   Today’s announcement. The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised the overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75% this morning.  The move was not a total surprise, as bond traders had the odds of a hike at around 40%. After the announcement […]

Notes from the Desk – US Jobs Data – Will the Fed Pause the Pause? Today’s US employment data offered a little bit for everyone.  Payrolls crushed expectations, but unemployment ticked higher and wage growth decelerated.   By the Numbers.   339k jobs created, crushing the consensus 195k estimate. Prior two months of data revised […]