“How long is a piece of string?” Earlier this year, in a commentary littered with bad ‘star’ puns, we wrote about the concept of r*, or the neutral rate.  This is the level for the overnight rate which neither stimulates nor restricts the economy and leads to stable inflation. We noted that the baseline assumption […]

“Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.” Marilyn Monroe One of the biggest regrets investors have is overstaying their welcome and holding on to a position for too long.  They either miss the opportunity to take profits before things take a turn for the worse, or they ride a loser down […]

“It’s time for the never-tedious Super Bowl halftime show.” The Simpsons At the start of the year, there was a sense of optimism amongst bond investors.  It appeared the worst of the rate hikes were behind us, and we were entering the final innings of this tightening cycle. After a dire year for fixed income, […]

“Look to the stars and from them learn” Albert Einstein Last month, we looked at the neutral rate of interest, which is also known as the natural rate, the equilibrium rate, or in its nerdier, variable form as r*.  This is the level for the overnight rate which neither stimulates nor restricts the economy and […]

“The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds; and the pessimist fears this is true” James Branch Cabell After 19 years of pure pain and suffering, Maple Leaf fans finally had a modicum of playoff success to celebrate.  And celebrate they did.  Following a series-clinching overtime goal, and after a collective sigh of relief, the […]