“Great success breeds a lot of things, including sequels.” Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson This time last year, 2023 was being touted as the ‘Year of the Bond’.  Elevated yields offered investors attractive income and the prognosticators were forecasting rate cuts to start in the summer. Being good students of Yogi Berra, we understand that ‘it’s […]

“We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.” Winston Churchill In the spirit of the holiday season, we decided to forego the usual musings that we begin our commentaries with, to highlight a cause that is near and dear to us. Over the past few years, […]

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different’.” Sir John Templeton It is an exciting time to be a bond nerd.  After a few of the most volatile years we have ever seen, it now appears that we are in the midst of a paradigm shift in our world. This shift […]

“If I had known who Godot is, I would have written it in the script.” Samuel Beckett Samuel Beckett’s famous ‘tragicomedy in two acts’ is often described as a play in which nothing happens, twice.  The two protagonists, Vladimir and Estragon (Didi and Gogo), spend the entirety of the play (as the title would suggest) […]

“How long is a piece of string?” Earlier this year, in a commentary littered with bad ‘star’ puns, we wrote about the concept of r*, or the neutral rate.  This is the level for the overnight rate which neither stimulates nor restricts the economy and leads to stable inflation. We noted that the baseline assumption […]