Sep 5, 2024 | Monthly Commentaries
“Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war.” Marc Anthony (Shakespeare) Every war has costs: the casualties of battle, the broken eggs required to make an omelette. Leaders must weigh these against the potential benefits and price of inaction. And once the war is...Aug 13, 2024 | Monthly Commentaries
“Take a deep breath in, and let it go.” Every Meditation Teacher Ever For the past couple of years, we have warned investors to be prepared for wild bouts of volatility. With the economy at an inflection point and central bankers engaged in a delicate balancing act,...Jul 9, 2024 | Monthly Commentaries
“60 percent of the time, it works every time.” Brian Fantana in Anchorman Of the many cognitive biases, the ‘anchoring effect’ is often cited as one of the most important and common. It is our tendency to overemphasize a reference point or initial piece of...Jun 13, 2024 | Monthly Commentaries
“Let’s enjoy the moment.” Tiff Macklem Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) became the first of the G7 central banks to cut rates, lowering the overnight level from 5% to 4.75%. The decision was widely anticipated (i.e., 80%) and one we think was relatively easy for...May 8, 2024 | Monthly Commentaries
The archer who misses his mark does not blame the target. He stops, corrects himself, and shoots again.’ Confucius This time last year, we expressed our view that the neutral rate of interest (i.e., the level that is neither restrictive nor accommodating) was higher...Apr 9, 2024 | Monthly Commentaries
‘I haven’t been everywhere, but it’s on my list.’ Susan Sontag As bond nerds, we are constantly engaged in discussions with allocators and investors about their fixed-income portfolios. Three years ago, when interest rates were close to zero, these conversations were...
