“I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market.  You can intimidate everybody.” James Carville The result was expected to be close, delayed, and potentially even contested.  But in […]

“You are responsible because you choose! Think carefully before you make a move!  One mistake may be your last.” The Choose Your Own Adventure Warning Over the past five years, the bond market story has read like a choose-your-own-adventure novel, jumping from one plot line to another.  We had the emergency response to the pandemic, followed shortly […]

“Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war.” Marc Anthony (Shakespeare) Every war has costs: the casualties of battle, the broken eggs required to make an omelette.  Leaders must weigh these against the potential benefits and price of inaction.  And once the war is waged, this cost/benefit analysis must be continuously recalibrated. In their […]

“Take a deep breath in, and let it go.” Every Meditation Teacher Ever For the past couple of years, we have warned investors to be prepared for wild bouts of volatility.  With the economy at an inflection point and central bankers engaged in a delicate balancing act, we expected each data point to be over-scrutinized […]

“60 percent of the time, it works every time.” Brian Fantana in Anchorman Of the many cognitive biases, the ‘anchoring effect’ is often cited as one of the most important and common.  It is our tendency to overemphasize a reference point or initial piece of information we receive, even if they are otherwise irrelevant.   There […]