Notes From the Desk – North American Employment Data   The shine is coming off the bond market as employment remains more resilient than expected. By the Numbers. US 216k jobs created vs 176k expected. -71k net revision to previous two months. Unemployment rate remains at 3.7% vs 3.8% expected. YoY wage growth 4.1% vs […]

Notes From the Desk – FOMC Meeting – Release the Hounds   As expected, the FOMC kept the policy rate unchanged at 5.25-5.5%.  The far more interesting items were buried in their press release and conference.   The dot-plot thickens.   No further hikes are indicated. A rate cut was added to 2024 for a […]

Notes From the Desk – US Payrolls – A Dent In The Narrative   Over the last several weeks, we have seen bond yields plummeting lower on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting rates in early spring.  Today’s employment data has put a dent in that narrative. By the Numbers.   199k […]

Notes From the Desk – Bank of Canada Rate Announcement – A Tentative Step Closer   To no one’s surprise, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate steady at 5%, while continuing the process of reducing their balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening). Most of what the Bank pointed out in their short press statement would […]

Notes from the Desk – US CPI – Encouraging News The US October CPI report saw both headline and core inflation softer than expected. By the numbers. YoY CPI 3.2% (3.3% expected) YoY Core inflation 4% (4.1% expected)   Implications. The downside surprises were seen in shelter costs, negative core goods prices, and falling used […]