Notes From The Desk: US Inflation Heads Into Overtime   US inflation slowed less ‘swiftly’ than expected in January, challenging the market’s expectations for rate cuts to be ‘ushered’ in this spring. The headline numbers.   Headline CPI was 3.1% vs. expected 2.9% Core CPI came in at 3.9% vs. expectations of 3.7%.   Beyond […]

Notes From the Desk – US Payrolls – Wow!   Today’s US Non-farm Payroll report was unambiguously strong, reducing concerns that the US economy is on the precipice of a major slowdown.  With the data smashing expectations, Treasury yields are 8-18 bps higher. The numbers.   353k jobs gained (185k expected) and the last two […]

Notes from the Desk – FOMC Meeting – Dialing It Back   As expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady and opted to continue quantitative tightening as scheduled. The good news.   The Fed dropped references to further rate hikes, and Chairman Powell explicitly stated that the Fed Funds rate was at its peak. […]

 Notes From the Desk:  BoC Day – Dropping Some Hints.   As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its target overnight rate at 5% and continued the process of quantitative tightening. But as is often the case with these meetings, the devil is in the details, and they did drop some hints that rate […]

Notes From the Desk – Canadian Inflation – A Fly In The Ointment   While the headline inflation number for December met expectations, the acceleration in the core measures should raise concerns at the Bank of Canada (BoC). By the Numbers. YoY headline CPI met expectations at 3.4%. Both core measures came in 0.2% higher […]