• Notes From the Desk: US Payrolls - Soothing Nerves

Notes From the Desk: US Payrolls – Soothing Nerves May 03 2024

Notes From the Desk: US Payrolls – Soothing Nerves

 

After a few months of strong data, today’s payroll numbers will offer central banks a touch of relief.

 

By the numbers:

 

  • The US added 175k jobs versus expectations of 240k.
  • Unemployment rose one notch to 3.9% versus a consensus of 3.8%.
  • Wage growth slowed one tick to 0.2% m/m versus 0.3% expected.

 

The implications:

 

The rise in unemployment and cooling wage pressure supports the narrative that the next move is a cut and opens the door wider to the Fed beginning later this year.

On the back of this report, bond markets rallied with yields moving ~10 bps lower.

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