Notes From the Desk – North American Employment Data
The shine is coming off the bond market as employment remains more resilient than expected.
By the Numbers.
US
- 216k jobs created vs 176k expected.
- -71k net revision to previous two months.
- Unemployment rate remains at 3.7% vs 3.8% expected.
- YoY wage growth 4.1% vs 4% expected.
Canada
- 0.1k jobs created vs 15k expected.
- The mix is poor with 23.5k full-time jobs lost and 23.6k part-time jobs created.
- Unemployment rate 5.8% vs 5.9% expected, with the participation rate 0.2% lower.
- YoY wage growth 5.7% vs 5.45% expected.
Implications.
The -71k revision to the October and November data points to a gradually cooling US labour market, supporting the possibility of a ‘soft landing’. On the other hand, the December numbers mean the odds of a cut in March are diminished.
The Canadian data is a mixed bag with stronger hours worked and wage growth, but lower job creation and participation. This has the potential of pushing rate cuts from the spring to the summer.
