Notes From The Desk: North American Employment – Help Wanted?
October saw a cooling in both temperatures and the North American labour market.
By the numbers.
Canada.
- 17.5k jobs added (v. expected 25k), with the gains coming from part-time employment.
- Unemployment rate: 5.7% (v. expected 5.6%).
- Wage growth 5.0% year-over-year. (v. expected 5.2%).
The US.
- Non-farm payrolls came in at 150k (v. expected 180k).
- There was also a -101k revision to the previous two months.
- Unemployment rate: 3.9% (v. expected 3.8%).
Implications.
Today’s data support the theory that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are done with rate hikes. The cooler job market also increases the odds of rate cuts being delivered earlier in 2024 than was previously anticipated. This has led to a rally in bond markets, with rates down ~15 bps as of noon today.
