Notes from the Desk – North American Labour Markets Remain Strong.
Once again, more people than expected found work on both sides of the border.
Canada:
• Employment increased by 21.8k vs 10k expected. The mix was strong with 31.1k full-time jobs created and 9.3k part-time jobs eliminated.
• YoY wage growth came in at 5.4%, handily beating the 5.1% estimate.
• The unemployment rate remains steady at 5%.
Implications:
• The Bank of Canada will not find much evidence that the economy is slowing in this number.
• The labour market is still very strong, putting their forecast for inflation to fall sharply at risk.
• We don’t think today’s data is strong enough to push the Bank to hike at the next meeting, but it certainly keeps that door open.
US:
• 311k jobs created vs 225k expected.
• MoM hourly earnings increased by 0.2%, below the expectation of 0.3%.
• The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% from 3.4%.
Implications:
• This is a mixed report showing that the job market is still strong, but wage growth appears to be slowing.
• Today’s data reduces the chance of a 50 bps hike at the next meeting, however, CPI looms as the next hurdle.
Market Reaction:
• Rates have moved sharply lower this morning. But the employment data has been swamped by fears of contagion risk from the troubles at a few regional banks.
